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Decoding the Russia-Ukraine Crisis


1.What is the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?


The United States and Germany have committed to provide cutting-edge battle tanks to Ukraine, setting the way for a number of its European allies to do the same.

The employment of contemporary Western tanks by Ukraine is likely to bolster its efforts to push Russian soldiers out of seized portions of the nation, particularly the eastern Donbas region. However, Russia views the gift of tanks as additional proof that the West is waging a proxy war against it in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has evacuated from the Donetsk city of Soledar in order to save personnel.

For 2023, the fate of Russia's spring attack will be decisive. Putin confirmed that perhaps 50,000 of the freshly mobilised troops are already at the front, while the remaining 250,000 are in training for next year.



2. What about Russia's rising anti-war sentiment?


Russia's anti-war position is difficult to predict. Despite Putin's protestations, just under half of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace respondents support Russia's conflict in Ukraine "very" and another 28% support it "mostly." Support for the war is based on the uncontested claims of the Russian regime that Russia is not taking anything that does not belong to Russia, that Russia is liberating Ukraine and especially its Russian speakers from Nazis, that NATO initially escalated the conflict in the Donbass, and that U.S. hypocrisy implies that the U.S. is the aggressor.




3. What lies ahead for Ukraine in the future?


The conflict in Ukraine is a fundamental battle over Europe's future, its geostrategic reconfiguration, and eventually its new security architecture. It signals a tectonic shift in the evolution of the continent, triggered by both Putin's historic blunder and the Ukrainian people's resistance. This transformation was accelerated by the rapid, almost instinctual response of the United States to provide military and economic help. The battle in Ukraine is not yet done, but Europe has altered significantly. And, in fact, its executives are aware of this. It will simply take longer for all parties involved to admit it, as doing so will bury — possibly permanently — the calcified bones of what the Continent looked like until very recently.




4. Does the war actually end?


The Western world has crossed numerous self-imposed red lines. Once hesitant, it now provides the Ukraine with Stinger and IRIS-T anti-air missiles, HIMARS rocket artillery, and Patriot high-altitude air defences. The fight has lasted longer than many regional wars, and there is no prospect of triumph or retreat. When so many predictions have proven to be incorrect, such as that Kyiv may fall in a matter of days or that Russia would soon establish air supremacy over Ukraine, it is prudent to approach predictions with caution. Russia may become uncontrollable. If Moscow continued its war, the West could continue arming Ukraine, enforcing severe sanctions, and controlling over $300 billion in Russian financial assets. The depleted Russian army could collapse. If the ground freezes deeply and for an extended period of time, the Ukrainian army may perform combined-arms operations to advance further into occupied territory. Uncertainty surrounds the conclusion of this war; the sides may remain as far apart as before.



5. What is India's position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?


India has abstained from every vote denouncing Russia's actions in Ukraine at the United Nations. Moscow is India's leading arms supplier, and around 70% of India's military platforms are Russian-made. By dismissing Russia's aggression as a European issue, India has also demonstrated indifference to the fears – in and outside the Indo-Pacific – that China, the dominant partner in the Sino-Russian relationship, could follow Russia's example and attempt to restructure Asia's security architecture through war. China poses a threat to the territorial sovereignty of several of its Asian neighbours, including India. Japan, the strategic partner of India in the Quad, faces Chinese threats to its sovereignty and believes that "today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia." India has acquired unheard-of quantities of Russian petroleum at steep discounts on the basis that Europe's energy imports from Russia surpass New Delhi's purchases.



6. What humanitarian initiatives have been undertaken?


According to the UN refugee agency, ten million people, or over a quarter of the population, have been displaced; nearly four million of them have fled to neighbouring countries, such as Hungary, Moldova, and Poland. Numerous Russian attacks have targeted densely populated regions, forcing citizens to take safety in subway stations and leaving hundreds of thousands without access to electricity, water, or essential necessities. Experts are especially concerned about Russia's dependence on artillery, cluster munitions, rockets, and other weaponry that can demolish residential regions, including the key Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Mariupol. The United Nations is increasing its humanitarian activities in and around Ukraine for this reason. It was announced that immediately $20 million will be allocated from the Central Emergency Response Fund to meet urgent requirements, emphasising that the United Nations and its humanitarian partners are "committed to staying and delivering aid to the Ukrainian people in their hour of need." 4.5 million Ukrainian children and women have access to primary health care in institutions and mobile teams supported by UNICEF.

References

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/29/russia-ukraine-war-opinion-putin-support/

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-battle-over-future-europe/

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/01/how-the-war-in-ukraine-could-end-sooner-than-expected.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63987113

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112662

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-humanitarian-crisis-refugees-aid

https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/war-ukraine-pose-immediate-threat-children















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